Thursday 8 January 2009

'Quantitative easing'

In the last couple of weeks there has been an increasing number of drip-drip media stories about the Government considering the clever idea of printing money. But we can't call it 'printing money' as that is too crude, plus Joe Bloggs might be able to comprehend the consequences. No, the government prefer to refer to it as 'quantitative easing'.

I prefer the term printing money personally.

Today they've denied that they're going to do it in the near future (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7817063.stm) which, in the current double-speak world we live, means they are going to do it in the near future - possibly even this year.

Bad idea... Money printing has an inglorious history of catastrophic failure. Be it the schemes devised by John Law in the 1700's or the more recent examples of Weimar Germany in the 1920's, Argentina in the 1980's or the current disaster unfolding in Zimbabwe. It simply will never work as a solution.

That won't stop our government telling us that it is the 'right thing to do' in order to help 'hard working families'. 'Tough times call for tough decisions'. Borrowing another £100bn is a tough decision? Telling all government departments to trim their budgets by 15% to save £100bn sounds tougher (and braver) to me...

Our hand may well be forced by the bond markets. A lot of countries are trying to issue bonds this year when money is scarce. Germany has just struggled to offload £6bn of 10-year bonds(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/16c7ceba-dcbe-11dd-a2a9-000077b07658.html). What hope does the UK have with the £146bn of gilts we hope to foist on the market in 2009?

I think the treasury has a cunning plan! (in the Baldrick sense)

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