Gordon Brown does the Hoovering

A few months ago, I dug out Edward Chancellor's (very good) book on speculative bubbles and read the chapter on the Great Depression of the 1930's. The aim was to see what mistakes our current leaders were likely to copy from that period.

The one thing that leapt out was the similarity between Gordon Brown and US president Herbert Hoover. Both were finance ministers during the boom and were seen as the steady hand during those times. But they both took over around the time of the bust starting and it was all downhill from there.

Brown constantly blames "global problems" rather than his own government for helping contribute to the conditions for the crash. Again, this rhymes perfectly with Hoover. Whilst it worked initially, it eventually backfired badly on Hoover.

Over time, Hoover became associated more and more with the problem, as measures became increasingly desperate, rather than the solution. Although still early in the current cycle, Brown is showing all the signs of going down the same route. People already laugh at the suggestion of him being still an iron leader with prudence as his middle name. A couple of years ago, you'd have been branded a bitter loonie for suggesting that. How times change.

My feeling is that until all the people involved (Brown included) recognise that there was a fundamental problem with the financial system (and people's role in it) prior to the credit crunch then we can't move into the healing stage for the economy. The UK is still a million miles from taking the bitter medicine needed (balancing/reversing our various deficits) and until we recognise it makes no sense to 'return to 2007' then our problems will continue to get worse. But that would require real leadership.

Hoover got booted out in the elections of 1933 and was replaced by 'New Deal' Roosevelt.

Much as Brown likes to think of himself as the new Roosevelt, the signs suggest he'll go down in history as the new Hoover. Definitely not a Dyson...